Tester leads Rehberg in latest poll

For months, Erik Iverson, campaign manger for Denny Rehberg has touted three polls showing Rehberg with a small two point lead in the U.S. Senate race.  Obviously, two points isn’t much to brag about – it’s inside the margin of error and doesn’t even factor in the two Libertarians now running for Senate.

It’ll be interesting to see Iveron try to spin the latest PPP Poll, which shows Tester leading Rehberg 48% to 43%.

The numbers get worse for Developer Denny when you look at Independents who now favor Tester 48% to 36%.  That’s huge.

The PPP Poll also took a look at the Democratic Congressional primary. Results:

Gillan is the modest early favorite to win the Democratic nomination. She’s at 21% to 13% for Diane Smith, 11% for Wilmer, 9% for Dave Strohmaier, 4% for Sam Rankin, 1% for Rob Stutz, and 0% for Jason Ward. Just like in the general election match ups though the big winner is undecided- 41% don’t yet know how they’ll vote.

12 thoughts on “Tester leads Rehberg in latest poll

  1. I think the most telling result of this poll in regards to the Rehberg/Tester race is the comparison between Q1 and Q2.

    Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jon
    Tester’s job performance?
    Approve 46% ………………
    Disapprove 43% …………..
    Not sure 11% ………………
    Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of
    Congressman Denny Rehberg’s job
    performance?
    Approve 39% ………………
    Disapprove 49%
    Not sure 12%

    I’m not sure how questions of this nature influence the “undecided” voters when it comes to election time, but it will be interesting to see the influence political ads (which we will be smothered with) will have on the results of these 2 questions as we get closer to the election.

  2. The poll reports that the sample was 30 percent Democratic, 33 percent Republican, and 37 percent independent. As I noted on http://www.flatheadmemo.com an hour ago, that breakdown is not trustworthy. Most self-identified independents are closet partisans. Only one of ten is a true independent, a voter who leans neither Democratic nor GOP.

    Rehberg leads among senior citizens. How a group that needs and likes Social Security and Medicare, and uses Medicaid, can even think of voting for a Republican is beyond my ken. Cognitive dissonance? Alzheimer’s? What accounts for these voters’ favoring the party that’s hellbent on incinerating the social safety net?

    • It probably has something to do with those dishonest ads which suggest that Rehberg has been fighting for Medicare while Tester is working to gut it.

      Put those on rotation during the TV news and an older demographic might start to believe it.

      • This Montana survey of 450 Likely Voters was conducted on May 2, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

        Don, I’m sure no one in Tester’s camp takes Rasmussen seriously. No need to ramp up attack ads in response.

        • I’m a bit skeptical of both polls. Rasmussen usually takes a 500-likely-voter sample, but this time settled for a 450-likely-voter sample. The larger sample’s MOE is 4.4%, the smaller sample’s is 4.2% (pollster’s can and do adjust the MOE to account for other uncertainties); not much difference.

          The PPP sample was 934 registered voters. If both polls got it right, the differences suggest that registered voters favoring Tester may be less likely to vote than RV’s favoring Rehberg.

          The PPP crosstabs caused me to raise an eyebrow. In the gender crosstab, for example, Kim Gillan does ten points better among men than women (see http://www.flatheadmemo.com). Is she really that popular with men?

        • After Election night that year, Silver concluded that Rasmussen’s polls were the least accurate of the major pollsters in 2010, having an average error of 5.8 points and a pro-Republican bias of 3.9 points according to Silver’s model.[23] He singled out as an example the Hawaii Senate Race, in which Rasmussen showed incumbent Daniel Inouye only 13 points ahead, whereas in actuality he won by a 53% margin[24] – a difference of 40 points from Rasmussen’s poll, or “the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998″

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